Down the Rabbit Hole We Go: Iran
First, let me tell you, it was one long day. Losing VIPs never makes it a short day. Especially when they are involved in the search for the VIP in extremely rugged terrain. However, about three hours into the incident, the question arose: how many helicopters in the Ebrahim Raisi entourage went down?
This was a group of three helicopters. One was transporting the president, the foreign minister, and the local governor. That was the red flag. Governments, for reasons (assassination), don’t tend to put all their eggs in one basket. In this case, they did.
Then, the other red flag emerged. And yes, the weather was horrible. The two decoy/ escorts made it home to their base. You have seen this in movies: the president’s plane, a chopper, goes down, and immediate rescue is done. This is based on authentic VIP protection protocols. But there was none of that. And the ground search made some sense under the conditions.
Then the photos emerged, and I felt utterly stupid for swallowing them. This is the crash site early in the process. But here we are. Incidentally, the photos are not even a search plane that would have made all the sense in the world. It was from a crash in 2020.
Incidentally, another important detail about the photos released by Iran. There was no snow on the ground, like none. Reportedly, it was snowing when the chopper went down.
Here is the information on that particular crash.
So, what is this about? And incidentally, I am leaning on those who understand Iran far better than I do. But it seems this is about succession:
If Raisi is dead, the key takeaway is not who succeeds him (that’s the 1st VP Mohammad Mokhber, but only as a caretaker for 50 days before an election).
It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Internal pundits had believed the competition to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader was down to Mojtaba and Raisi. If Raisi is dead, Mojtaba becomes heir apparent.
The post of President is relatively unimportant — it’s more for domestic affairs, not national security and ideological direction.
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-person body, appoints the next Supreme Leader upon the death or vacancy in office of the Supreme Leader.
A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.
And then we are set for the Islamic Republic to open itself up (rightly) to accusations that it has effectively become a hereditary monarchy — just in radical Islamic clothing.
This would make it harder for the regime to differentiate itself from its predecessor Pahlavi government, which is becoming viewed more favorably in retrospect by Iranians today.
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