Israel and the United States
*Delay of arms shipments*
Israel has been familiar with the issue for some time, the American decision was made in April. The step up on the part of the administration in recent days was reflected in the decision to brief American journalists on this so that the issue would be made public.
The Americans made it clear that the purpose of the delay is to put pressure on Israel on the Rafah issue — they do not deny this.
This is one shipment that has been delayed: 1,800 MK84 bombs (more than 900 kg) and 1,700 MK82 bombs (about 225 kg). The Americans claimed that they were mainly concerned about the damage that bombs weighing more than 900 kg could cause in Rafah.
Regarding 6,500 JDAM-type bomb guidance kits, the Americans are considering the possibility of delaying but have not yet made a decision.
Other shipments continue as normal and in recent days a large shipment worth 827 million dollars has even been cleared.
The Republicans in Congress, who control the House of Representatives and are therefore able to delay legislation and budgets, exert heavy pressure on the administration to stop the delays. In Israel, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, is particularly noted and is described as a “good surprise”.
“ Captain Job “
President Joe Biden has paused the delivery of certain offensive weapons to Israel, which understandably has a lot of American Jews upset. So today, I will take a deep dive into what is happening. And also point out where the open rift came from. I will also tell you how this is playing in Israel because I think American Jews should also listen to what is going on there and how this is getting received.
It is not about Dearborn, Michigan, or the election. On that front, the campaign is delusional if they think the 2020 coalition will be able to reform. This, the president is losing a lot of American Jewish voters, and I am sure they are aware. So please spare me the this is about Dearborn. Biden was not the first US president to openly disagree with Israel. Here is but one example Jewish Americans seem not to remember from the Ronald Reagan administration:
In addition to not vetoing UN resolutions, Reagan took several actions that many in Israel and the United States perceived as anti-Israel. For example, on June 7, 1981, less than six months after Reagan took office, Israel launched a surprise bombing raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, and, in so doing, violated the airspace of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Reagan not only supported UNSC Resolution 487, which condemned the attack, but he also criticized the raid publicly and suspended the delivery of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Israel. Moreover, over the strident objections of Israel and the pro-Israel U.S. lobby groups, Reagan approved the sale of advanced reconnaissance aircraft (AWACS ) to Saudi Arabia, which Israel then viewed as a hostile state.
There are plenty of other examples of the United States putting her interests ahead of Israel’s. For that matter, the US is trying to be a good friend and direct her ally toward a long-term strategic result that will be good for both Israel and the United States. So what is at the craw of the American president? Yes, the interview on CNN said it was about casualties, but he also hinted at something else. This is the relationship with Egypt. This was in the Israeli press. I understand why our politicians don’t say this clearly, and they should, but it’s this:
Report: Egypt warns Israel Rafah offensive may lead to suspension of peace treaty
“There is limited space and great risk in putting Rafah under further military escalation due to the growing number of Palestinians there,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said on Saturday during a press briefing, warning that an escalation would have “dire consequences.”
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Egyptian officials warned the decades-long peace treaty between Egypt and Israel could be suspended if Israel Defense Forces’ troops enter Rafah, or if any of Rafah’s refugees are forced southward into the Sinai Peninsula.
In addition, Saudi Arabia — which has already conditioned normalization with Israel on an end to hostilities and steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state — issued a statement Saturday warning of “the extremely dangerous repercussions of storming and targeting the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip,” given the city being “the last refuge for hundreds of thousands of people.”
This would be a disaster for the region. It is not just the legacy of President Jimmy Carter but also Prime Minister Benjamin Begin and President Anwar Sadat; the last two men died for this peace. It would destabilize the region even further. So those are the stakes that we are talking about.
The world is not worried about what is under Rafah. We all know of the tunnels under the border. There are cheeky articles about ordering Kentucky Fried Chicken from the Egyptian border, with an underground tunnel delivery, not using the open overland crossing. That these tunnels were not just used for KFC deliveries, if you will, Uber eats underground, is also the case. Here is one of those articles from the Guardian.
These tunnels were the source of the weapons transfers into the strip. Why Israel wants to control the Philadelphia corridor, at a purely tactical level, makes sense. However, there is more to the American-Israeli disagreement. And let's be clear: another Egyptian-Israeli war would be a disaster.
So what’s at play?
First, let me say it. The current tactics followed by the Israeli administration are not good. They call it mowing the grass; there is plenty of this in the West Bank every night. We call it counterinsurgency operations. It is the same thing; from now on, I will use the acronym COIN. This, in short, means sending in special forces every night to arrest and kill enemy combatants. Or at least possible combatants. Israel has been doing this since the second Intifada when they added all the checkpoints.
Short term, it works. You take out fighters from the chessboard, and right now, Israel is running out of jail space. The problem with COIN is that it works very well at the tactical level but must solve the issue's heart. At the strategic level, it can, and in fact, regularly does, lead to defeat. We lost both Vietnam, Afghanistan, and arguably Iraq because we did a lot of COIN and very little else. Where we did the other part, like Mosul, we took apart ISIS with local Iraqi allies. This included working with local clans. We can argue until the cows come home if that is the correct thing to do. What is clear is that neither Afghanistan nor Iraq were going to be the paragon of Jeffersonian democracy.
Gaza will not be a shining city on the hill, either. And to be brutal, Israel is losing the war in Gaza. How do we know? Every time Israel withdraws from part of the sector, the Hamas and PIJ survivors that had gone underground go to pre-arranged weapons caches and reconstitute.
Enter this criticism from a former Chief of Staff of the IDF. Mind you, he also admits to something worse and tells you how Israel got into this predicament. They collectively underestimated Hamas.
Former Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi:
“We did not perceive Gaza and Hamas as an existential threat, we prepared the army to face Iran.” In the current situation, the destruction of Hamas and the kidnapped Shibat are two conflicting goals. I don’t think there is a way to bring them back without stopping the war for the time being, there will be no problem to start another war in the future. We cannot achieve complete victory in months. It will take many, many years. It is hard to believe that through diplomatic channels we will achieve the desired situation in the north. The other option is a military operation.”
https://t.me/rakknetto/44389
Please realize that the Prime Minister made the strategic error of allowing Hamas to grow to weaken the Palestinian Authority and now is trapped in a COIN trap of his own making. This brings me to another huge part of a disagreement with Washington. This is a day after plan.
This is the time of Israel coverage on this:
US President Joe Biden urges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to plan for who will govern Gaza after the war, highlighting a bitter point of contention between the US and the premier, who has refused to hold substantive cabinet discussions on the matter due to concerns they could collapse his coalition.
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have called for Israel to permanently occupy Gaza and re-establish settlements in the Palestinian territory. The premier has signaled his opposition to these steps, but has been criticized for blocking clear alternatives to Hamas’s rule, such as a reformed Palestinian Authority, leaving US officials concerned that Gaza will either remain in Hamas’s hands or will be governed by anarchy.
“We’ve got to think through what is happening after this is over [in Gaza]. Who is going to occupy Gaza?” Biden says in a CNN interview.
So here are some of the American pressure points. The first is a day after the plan. A few emerge from Tel Aviv, but all have melted under the sands. Why? Israel needs to win this war. COIN is an excellent short-term option but not a strategic option. But Israel is trapped in a COIN paradigm.
Israel will need to work with Palestinians. This includes the same Palestinian Authority Bibi and the Israeli right despise. They believed Oslo was a bad idea. And they do have somewhat of a point since it failed in some ways to deliver the security Israel wants. For that matter, Palestinian obstinacy has prevented their national dream as well.
Bibi and the Israeli right are not the majority of Israelis. In fact, if either Itamar Ben Gvir or Bezalel Smotrich stepped down from the cabinet, Netanyahu’s cabinet would collapse. There is also this: the religious right is starting to blame Bibi as well:
The demand to act in Rafah without the US sounds disconnected. Certainly when a northern front may open, then what will we do without armaments?
And of course when Netanyahu serves here as Prime Minister, who is known to be weak and cowardly politically as well, it is hard to see him flexing his muscles against the US, he is neither Shamir nor Golda.The situation seems lost and our cards in the negotiations for the deal have lost a lot of their value.
Yair Levy
So here is where we are. It is hardly an unprecedented point in American-Israeli relations. Israel could try a new strategic alliance with India. It’s been heading that way for some time. I would argue it would be a great mistake.
However, let’s say they do. India has recognized both sides of this frozen conflict. And India is just as committed to a two-state solution as the United States. So Israel will have a choice sooner or later. And it is not one she wants. Either sit down again with Palestinians. Sorry, Bibi, it will have to be the Palestinian Authority. Or, at this point, there is a very good chance the UN General Assembly will get to vote on this.
I believe Israel should have a say in how this chapter ends.
However, I think Israel has gotten the message from the administration:
IDF spokesman Hagari in a statement:
“The IDF has armaments for the missions it is planning and also for the missions in Rafah. We have what we need.
The USA has so far provided security assistance to the State of Israel and the IDF in an unprecedented manner. Even when there are disagreements between us — we resolve them in closed rooms.’
https://t.me/hadasot10