Middle East Deescalation Ladder
As you all know, Israel did attack deep inside Iran last night. What they used is still in question. If there is one thing that makes the life of Open Source hard, it is that Israel is not telling, and Iran is denying all damage.
Watching Russia, another closed society, tells me there was some damage. But Israel is not speaking, and Iran is not saying. So, we are reduced to watching inferential data. So here is the first…
A senior American told ABC about Israel’s attack on Iran:
“Three missiles were fired from Israeli warplanes outside Iran. Israel hit an air defense radar near Isfayah which is part of the defense of the Natanz nuclear site. The initial assessment is that the attack destroyed this facility, but the assessment has not yet been completed.”
Israel News IL — on Telegram
We also have some compelling information emerging from the world of OSINT that points to this attack having had some success:
OSINT specialist Chris Biggers published a satellite image (Umbra SAR) from April 19, 2024 and, comparing it with an image from April 15, 2024, concludes that evidence of an Israeli strike on the Iranian S-300PMU2 air defense system battery in Isfahan is indeed visible. The radar (92N6E in the photo) is probably damaged. However, other components of the SAM system were removed from the site. As Chris writes, their status and whereabouts are currently unclear. According to senior US military sources in an interview with FOX News, “the Israelis struck what they intended to strike.”
So now that we know there was possibly some damage, let’s point to the huge signal that Iran is giving. They want off this ride, and they are letting everybody know through Russia:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a statement to the media:
“Iran does not have nuclear weapons, and this is confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency.”
“Russia conveyed a message to Israel through diplomatic channels that Iran is not interested in escalation.”
“Russia hopes that Israel’s response to the attack in Tehran will be in a way that shows that it does not want further escalation with Iran.”
They are letting Israel know through their ally that they are ready to just go back to the status before their missile raid on Israel. No, this is not a call for peace. But they want to return to the under-the-surface war they have been at for decades.
Why does this matter? Iran is one of the coalition of autocrats trying to recreate the world. If they have to scale down their operations, it’s a defeat for Russia too.
This is one reason I have been paying attention to this all day. I was not surprised Israel struck back. I am shocked they are all mum about it, except Itamar Ben Gvir, who called this scarecrow on Twitter. The national security minister was not in the room that authorized this strikeback either. It was Benny Gantz, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Secretary of Defense Yoav Gallant.
Israel also informed us that they were going to, but it was a measured response meant not to escalate the situation. Three missiles, we still have no idea what type, but rumor is they were Rafael Systems Blue Sparrow, penetrated Iranian air defenses.
While Israel used American planes, they chose to use their own systems for this mission. Incidentally, at least the booster section of something was found in Eastern Iraq. The emerging consensus is that it might be the remains of one of these. The Israelis earlier in the day suggested it was Iranian.
So now we head towards de-escalation. Partly because if Israel hit eBay, it wanted to hit with three missiles, and Tehran received the message. If the system hit the S300, that would also be a black eye for Russia.
So, we saw a relatively minor escalation that offered Iran an off-ramp. Will Iran stop with the threats? Let’s not go crazy here. But it will be worth watching to see what else happens. And as I type this, a base in Iraq was hit as well, in the Babylon province. It could just be poorly stored ammo since that was a depot.
As to Russia. They need Iran to continue to put pressure on Israel and the West. So, we are likely back to fighting each other with proxies.
Will Iran decide to get back on the escalation ladder? Time will tell. Monitoring Telegram, they are a tad on the jittery side. What is also true is that Iran withdrew a vessel from the Red Sea:
According to the Tanker Trackers website, the Iranian ship BEHSHAD, which is considered by many to be a spying facility at sea, has indeed returned from the Red Sea to Iran
This is suspected to be one of the vessels transmitting data to the Houthi rebels. It’s quite a coincidence that it pulled back to port. It could be to replenish the ship. It could be to give the crew a break. So, yes, it could be a coincidence.
This would signal that Iran is stepping off the escalation ladder regardless of what they say. Could this change? Of course, but we work with what we have.
On a personal note. One of the very early reports had Israel hitting drone facilities. Well, that would have been not good for Russia. It turned out to have been just that, a rumor, which is always a good reminder that early information is usually wrong.