We got excellent news this morning. My suspicions that an exchange was coming came true. I was surprised how fast it happened. Our media is going to concentrate on Americans who are coming home today. That’s understandable—one more detail. As you read this, realize the full exchange happened in Ankara despite rumors of multiple locations. This has been the latest to emerge. So, the news of borders with Poland is wrong, but the texts have not been corrected; there are just a few updates.
But we need the bigger picture. These two Volymedia pieces read like a Cold War spy novel. So do enjoy. We exchanged spies and assassins for reporters and human rights activists. Don’t travel to Russia. They will need more people for future exchanges. So here are the two pieces. Leaving them as if it was one. But here are the links to part one and part two:
The exchange took place. Part 1: who was changed and how
On the evening of July 31, Americans Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan (an American Marine accused in the Russian Federation of spying for the United States), and, according to sources, Alsa Kurmasheva (Radio Liberty journalist, US citizen, who flew to the Russian Federation in May) were brought to Kaliningrad from Moscow 2023 for the funeral of her mother and arrested for “fakes”). On the morning of August 1, they were exchanged for several Russian agents arrested in the United States and Europe between 2014 and 2023. Among those exchanged were definitely Artem and Anna Dultsev and their two children. The Dultsevs worked undercover in Slovenia, both had Argentine passports. They were probably involved in coordinating a network of SVR agents in the EU countries and may be involved in organizing sabotage at industrial facilities in the EU, establishing channels for the supply of European industrial equipment through third countries to the Russian Federation, and espionage in favor of the Russian Federation.
In addition to the Dultsevs, those imprisoned in the United States for espionage and cybercrimes, Vladislav Klyushin, Roman Seleznev, and Vadim Konoshchenok, who was caught in Estonia but was involved in smuggling technology from the United States, could be exchanged at this stage.
The second stage of the exchange took place in the capital of Turkey. The main “product” was brought to Ankara from Germany — the hired killer Vadim Krasikov, in whose release Putin was personally interested* (why exactly, a little lower). GRU agent Mikhail Mikushin, who was caught in Norway, posing as a Brazilian professor and teaching at the University of Tromso. GRU agent Pavel Rubtsov, caught in Poland posing as Spanish journalist Pablo Gonzalez.
Vladimir Kara-Murza (through whose efforts the first package of sanctions against the Russian Federation and personally against dozens of Russian officials and security officials), Ilya Yashin, Oleg Orlov (co-chairman of Memorial), Alexandra Skochilenko (author of anti-war price tags) were brought for exchange from Moscow to Ankara. , Liliya Chanysheva, Ksenia Fadeeva, Vadim Ostanin (all three are former chiefs of staff of Navalny), Andrei Pivovarov (head of the Open Russia Foundation, arrested before the start of the war), Rico Krieger (German doctor sentenced to death in Belarus), Herman Moizhes (a citizen of Germany and the Russian Federation, accused in Russia of treason), Kevin Lik (the youngest convicted of treason in the Russian Federation, also having German citizenship), Dieter Voronin (detained before the start of the war for transferring secret information received from Ivan to the West Safronov), Patrick Shebel (arrested in January 2024 for transporting marijuana in chewing gummies, that is, Shebel was immediately arrested to replenish the exchange fund).
After both stages, eight former agents, spies and one hired killer returned to the Russian Federation, three American citizens went to the USA, and five Germans and eight Russian, fortunately already former, political prisoners will go to Germany. Total 8 people in exchange for 16.
The main initiators of the exchange were the United States and Putin*. For the Americans, negotiations that lasted almost the entire Biden presidency needed to be ended. Firstly, because after the change of administration after the elections, the process would have to start all over again. Secondly, because the successful return home of three US citizens is a powerful trump card in the election campaign for the Democrats and Kamala Harris.
Putin* needed Krasikov, who, according to several of our interlocutors, at one time received several tasks to eliminate people personally from Putin*. Krasikov, as far as we know, was silent about this, but if he had suddenly spoken, the Russian president would have turned for law-abiding Europeans into an accused of organizing murders. In addition, there were a lot of failed Russian agents in the EU and the US who needed to be brought home to appease those who need to be doing espionage right now. The return of captured agents has been a top priority of Soviet and Russian intelligence services since the Cold War.
@VolyamediaThe exchange took place. Part 2: What does it all mean?
The American authorities managed to convince Germany to hand over Krasikov to the Russian Federation in exchange for five of its citizens, at least three of whom were arrested in Russia precisely in order to push the Germans to negotiate an exchange. At the same time, it was important for German politicians to show that they not only saved their compatriots from Putin’s prison, but also achieved the release of obvious political prisoners from Russia. Therefore, among those exchanged only those who were involved in high-profile political cases that were widely covered in Europe and the United States, and those for whom governments of third countries and large human rights organizations asked.
The British government was interested in the release of Vladimir Kara-Murza, and the French government was interested in the release of Oleg Orlov. As far as we know, Yulia Navalnaya asked Biden for the release of Chanysheva, Fadeeva and Ostanin, and Pivovarov and Yashin were on the list for exchange largely through the efforts of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
No one who is in the Russian Federation on charges of terrorism (we are talking about those who were arrested for arson of military registration and enlistment offices, relay cabinets, allegedly preparing terrorist attacks, etc.) was included in the list for exchange and had no chance of getting there. Partly because Americans and Europeans really perceive them as terrorists, partly because this would require involving the Ukrainian side. And Ukraine was distanced as much as possible from the exchange negotiations so as not to jeopardize it due to information leaks or an overly aggressive position of the Ukrainian side.
Dozens of people convicted of “fakes,” “discrediting,” and other “crimes” with which the Russian Federation diversified its criminal code after the start of the invasion of Ukraine were also not included in the list.
Immediately after the first news about the exchange, there was talk in the Russian opposition community that this was the first step towards large peace negotiations with the participation of Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU. There is no information about upcoming negotiations. As far as we know from Russian sources in the Presidential Administration, the Ministry of Defense and other departments, the Russian Federation does not even have an interest in the negotiation process. They only agree to the surrender of four Ukrainian regions, which neither Ukraine, nor Europe, nor the United States are ready for.
An exchange is just an exchange. Biden gained a bargaining chip for Democrats by returning three Americans. Putin* received his “beloved” and potentially dangerous Krasikov (I wonder what the future fate of this man will be and whether he will die unexpectedly from something that the Russian authorities will later call inhumane conditions of detention in a German prison). In addition, by playing into the hands of American Democrats with a quick exchange, the Russian authorities tried to hedge against Trump’s victory. Trump’s latest statements could have scared the Kremlin, where they finally saw that he was not an ally of the Russian Federation, but much tougher and unpredictable than Biden and his administration. But this is more speculation and assumptions than fact.
According to information from European and Russian sources, which cannot yet be verified, on the morning of August 1, on the border of Poland and the Kaliningrad region, in addition to the American citizens and Russian agents already listed in the previous post, from 4 to 6 military personnel of the French, Canadian and Polish armies were returned. The French and the Canadian fought as part of units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and were captured by Russian saboteurs during several operations in the Nikolaev area back in 2022. Poles are officers and privates of the Polish army captured on Polish territory by Russian saboteurs during reconnaissance raids from Belarus in the fall and winter of 2022–2023.
The sources who reported this are trustworthy, but we believe that this information is still in the category of speculation. If it turns out to be correct, confirmation will appear in the coming days.
Congratulations to all those who were in Russian prison and today found themselves free! We are especially happy for Vladimir Kara-Murza. Strength and patience to those who still remain behind bars!
*Vladimir Putin is accused of committing war crimes
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