The Other Front
Israel killed the Iranian president, the Iranian foreign minister, Haniyeh, al-Arouri, Soleimani, Zahedi, Fakhrizadeh, Fouad Shukr, and all the leaders of Hezbollah. Hassan’s fate is still unknown, and Iran has not responded. I tell you that the arenas and red lines are one, and it turned out to be a slap in the face axis.
The above is from a Gaza account. To be clear, Israel has not owned killing Ebrahim Raisi. But his helicopter did go down. So bear that in mind when you read this. There are plenty of bad jokes circulating as well. However, in the Middle East, many Arabs do believe Israel was being this and not a mechanical failure, as Iran claimed.
Let's go into today's events because they may have critical effects down the line. Well, we have been waiting for confirmation all day, but Israel has hit the remaining command and control for Hezbollah in the last fourteen hours. It was a precision strike using probably a bunker penetrator.
So here is partially what we know so far from the Israeli side. Arabs mostly leave out the function of these buildings. However, I will add the Hamas press release, which is a side acknowledgment of what and who was hit:
4 buildings collapsed in the attack on Hezbollah’s main headquarters in Goveh HaDa’ah, Beirut.
The likely target: Hassan Nasrallah.
We will wait for verification.
Yossi Eliezer
301 The Arab world in Telegram
Here is the Hamas statement, by the way; as of this writing, it’s about four hours old:
Hamas condemns the Zionist terrorist aggression on the southern suburb of Beirut
• We, in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), condemn in the strongest terms the ongoing brutal Zionist aggression and escalation against the brotherly Lebanese people, through barbaric raids, the latest of which was a Zionist raid that targeted residential buildings in Haret Hreik in the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the occupation’s claim of targeting His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah.
• The escalating Zionist terrorism against the brotherly Lebanese people because of their support for the Palestinian people and their stand against the genocide in the Gaza Strip, and the blood that is being shed as a result of this Zionist crime in both Palestine and Lebanon, requires our Arab and Islamic nation to leave the square of silence, and to move by all means and in all international forums, rejecting the American bias and support for this brutal aggression, and in victory for the values of chivalry and magnanimity in standing with the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples against the aggressive plans of the Zionist occupation.
• We renew our absolute solidarity with the brotherly Lebanese people and the brothers in Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon. We share their pain and hope for victory over this Zionist enemy, and we value and commend their sacrifices and steadfastness in the epic of open accountability in support of our people and our resistance, and in response and defense of the brotherly Lebanese people.
• The occupation and its Nazi leaders are dreaming that by committing the most heinous massacres against the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples, or by targeting the leaders and men of the resistance, they will achieve their malicious goals, or they will achieve an imaginary victory that will destroy the flame of the resistance, its strength and its continuity, and the popular incubator that supports and backs it.
Islamic Resistance Movement — Hamas
Friday: 24 Rabi` al-Awwal 1446 AH
Corresponding to: September 27, 2024
Let me start with the possible consequences of this. The first is Lebanon's ethnic and religious makeup. Remember that tribal and religious links are far more important than national identity in the region. So, this map matters. Let’s see if Lebanese Christians decide to try to rid Lebanon of Hezbollah. That is just the top of my concerns.
Important few reminders on this. Hezbollah is integrated into Lebanese society. It’s part of Parliament and runs a few charities in the south. So it’s not as if it exists outside the society. This may also lead to an intra-Muslim religious war.
So, as you look at events, bear this map in mind.
So, what are the Israeli objectives? A total decapitation of Hezbollah may lead to a collapse of the organization. Read Hamas' statement in that light as well. Israel is trying to do that.
In some ways, destroying both organizations at a functional level is also a severe blow to Iran. Yesterday, Yigal Levin had this, well before this happened:
Some circles in Iran are expressing active concern about the lack of active action from Tehran in response to Israel’s ongoing strikes against the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the BBC reports .
Despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s statements at the UN General Assembly about his desire for peace and readiness to resume negotiations, Iranian fundamentalists have criticized the lack of tough rhetoric and actions toward Israel.
The article says that inside Iran there is criticism of Pezeshkian for such statements, believing that it undermines confidence both at home and among Iran’s proxies abroad, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. There is also concern that Tehran could lose its influence in the region if it continues to avoid direct response to Israel’s constant attacks.
The situation is complicated by Iran’s economic difficulties caused by American sanctions and constant internal unrest. The Iranian side also fears that aggression against Israel could provoke retaliatory strikes, which could lead to the destabilization of the ayatollahs’ regime.
Iran thus faces a difficult choice: either it risks losing its regional power by refraining from active action, or it is drawn into a conflict that could have catastrophic consequences for Tehran.
So, this is a good summary of Iran's place a day ago. However, there are obvious risks beyond the deaths of civilians. And so we are clear, civilian casualties are always a tragedy.
The first and most obvious risk is that Hezbollah did not answer much over the last week. Okay, they did, but Radwan commandos were quiet because the command had no idea what to do. Fighters at the ground level are angry; they want to hit back. The leash keeping them in line is now gone.
So, will fighters decide to freelance and go after the North in a physical invasion? Reminder: there are plans to do this. Many of these fighters are experienced from Siria. Incidentally, Syrians are celebrating, at least some Syrians, once again look at that map of Lebanon. A similar one exists for Siria. Speaking of Syria:
In Syria, there are reports of joyful chants of “Takbir” from mosques in the rural areas of Aleppo and Idlib due to the bombing of the headquarters in Dahiya and the rumors of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
So, will the Syrian civil war that never ended resume? Now, let’s look at the West Bank. It’s been getting hotter for the last few months. We saw an Israeli operation as well. What do they all have in common? All these are Iranian proxies.
Will this weaken Tehran? Probably in the short term and even in the medium term. Could this encourage the Iranian resistance inside Iran? Yes.
This makes me turn to Russia. The alliance between the Mullahs and Vladimir Putin matters. This is not just Shaheeds that Russia needs to hit Ukraine. It’s also about resistance to the West. As is Iran just did this:
Iran has called for an urgent meeting with the member leaders of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to address the Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Palestine.
In my view, they are trying to hold to whatever influence they can, which is why this is public. This is not just a blow to Iranian influence in the region or the axis of resistance. It’s also a blow to the Moscow-Tehran alliance.
However, not all is good. In the short term, there will be more attacks on Israel from the north. As I type, rockets are flying; it’s a case of using them or losing them since Israel has been bombing known storage facilities, some deep in civilian areas.
Then there is the West Bank. It might see more violence.
This may also stop any ceasefire for the time being. It does protect Benjamin Netanyahu, in a way. So, the actual consequences, good, bad, or ugly, are weeks to months. At the geopolitical level, though, this may very well affect Moscow, especially if the Syrian civil war goes from the current smoldering phase to a more active one.
And then there is that map of Lebanon. Will other groups decide it is past time to get rid of Iranian proxies? It goes without saying, via Wikipedia, here is the one from Syria.