Hurricane Hilary and Preparedness

Hurricane Hilary is making its way north from Mexico's Pacific coast, getting stronger. Simulations have it coming into the US, right by the border between Mexico and San Diego. To be specific, Tijuana-Imperial Beach.

Right now, the system is becoming stronger since it is on pretty warm waters. The models have it at making landfall as a strong tropical depression, as it will soon get to colder waters.

However, as good as we are at predicting these things, we are some time off from this making landfall. What it does will change, and the projected path will get better. So I am going to use my experience of ten years in emergency services, including disaster preparation. This means I am going for the worse case, and I will say it now. Hilary may make landfall as a Category One Hurricane. Even if it comes to ground as a tropical depression, we are expecting a dramatic rain and flood event. This is particular to the interior of San Diego County, LA County, and Riverside County.

If you are planning a camping trip, I would cancel it. This rain event is expected to be bad. Experts are already warming, and this could be bad. I am keeping my eyes on the National Weather Service to see how their modeling improves over the next few days.

Preparedness

Here is where an ounce of prevention will make life more bearable in the coming week. There are a few assumptions you should make. Even as a weak Category 1 or a strong Tropical Depression, expect localized flooding and power interruptions. Prepare accordingly.

If you do not have an earthquake kit, put together these basics. This is via FEMA:

A basic emergency supplies kit could include the following recommended items:

Water (one gallon per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation)
Food (at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food)
Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert (Some work on both battery and hand crank. These are best.)
Flashlight
First aid kit
Extra batteries
Whistle (to signal for help)
Dust mask (to help filter contaminated air)
Plastic sheeting and duct tape (to shelter in place)
Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties (for personal sanitation)
Manual can opener (for food)
Local maps
Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery
Download the Recommended Supplies List (PDF)
Additional Emergency Supplies
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommends people include additional items in their kits to help prevent the spread of coronavirus or other viruses and the flu.

Consider adding the following items to your emergency supply kit based on your individual needs:

Cloth face coverings (for everyone ages 2 and above), soap, hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes to disinfect surfaces
Prescription medications
Non-prescription medications such as pain relievers, anti-diarrhea medication, antacids or laxatives
Prescription eyeglasses and contact lens solution
Infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes and diaper rash cream
Pet food and extra water for your pet
Cash or traveler’s checks
Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records saved electronically or in a waterproof, portable container
Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person
Complete change of clothing appropriate for your climate and sturdy shoes
Fire extinguisher
Matches in a waterproof container
Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
Mess kits, paper cups, plates, paper towels and plastic utensils
Paper and pencil
Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children

If you do have a kit, time to make sure all your supplies are within use-by date; if not, replace them. 

There is something else. The early bird gets the worm. So go shopping as early as possible. Stores will run out of water and other supplies as more people realize this is not a drill.

Full disclosure: I got my kit together before I sat down to write this.

The only item that is a last-minute buy is ice. That will go into your fridge to keep it cold or cool.

Here are a few other points:

Have a contact out of the area, and when you can tell them you are safe, use a messaging app. They tend to go through far better than phone calls. Expect cell towers to be damaged.

Keep your eyes peeled on the National Weather Service and be aware of your local designated disaster AM radio station. In San Diego, that is KGO, FM is KPBS. Reports, assuming the worse case, should come through the radio.

Also, consider getting a camping stove, especially if you have an all-electric kitchen.

Wash your clothes now, because you may find it impossible later. Oh, and top off all your vehicle tanks. If you need to evacuate, this is not the moment to go to the gas station. Also, if your gas station depends on electrical power to run those pumps and we lose it, you won’t be able to fuel up.

Good luck.