The Day After Wagner

We all went to sleep with a sense of anticipation. What would Wagner do? It’s not like we were all sure what would they do. One thing I guessed, and seems partially correct, is that the FSB would be visiting every Wagner member, past and present, because of their announced plans.

We know those plans were partially underway from some evidence on the ground. These range from Belarus taking some measures on the internet to the warnings of some fighters. So this morning General SVR had an interesting take. Mind you, like every post from SVR, it’s helpful to use some salt. However, they were light on Vladimir Putin is at death's door, and more into what may be happening. So, as usual, they have some use.

For some context, Nikolai Patrushev is a classmate of Vladimir Putin at the KGB Academy in St. Petersburg. His son Dmitry is the secretary of agriculture, and part of the St Petersburg Nomenklatura. So, given that context, here is the post from SVR:

Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! In an interesting way, the preparatory stage for the once long-awaited transit begins. The destruction by the Russian air defense system, over the territory of Russia, of the aircraft in which Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin were, puts a bullet in the Prigozhin rebellion and in the existence of the Wagner PMC. Under the leadership of the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, an operation was developed to destroy Yevgeny Prigozhin and the entire leadership of the Wagner PMC. The liquidation of Prigozhin and Utkin is the main, but not the final stage of this operation, according to the plan, all Wagner PMC commanders who supported the rebellion should be destroyed. We already talked about this almost immediately, after the rebellion, but then few people attached importance to this information. The President was informed about the plans and he gave permission for their implementation. Recently, Putin practically does not participate in the life of the country, and even without his permission, the operation would have been carried out. The president dies and the leadership of the power bloc, led by Nikolai Patrushev, is preparing to seize power, or rather, to transit, as they see it. All stages of preparation must be completed before Putin’s death, and there is little time left.

Prigogine’s death solves two problems at once. Firstly, it removes from the political field a figure that can mobilize and arm twenty-five thousand “thugs” with combat experience, and, in a period of political uncertainty, can start its own game, confusing the plans of representatives of law enforcement agencies. Secondly, the destruction of Prigozhin opens the way to the next stage of the transit preparation — the purge of the “army”, here it is planned to block any opportunities for the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) to intervene in the struggle for power on someone else’s side or play their own game. In addition, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have already decently “fucked” the security forces. Patrushev, who led the country and the negotiations with Prigozhin, during the rebellion, initially had a different plan, which first provided for the purge of the military, and then the destruction of PMCs, but the president intervened in the process, protecting Shoigu and Gerasimov, therefore, the plans had to be adapted to current conditions. Now Putin is weakening every day, the double is completely under the control of the security forces, who managed to find mutual understanding with the leadership of the FSO, and Patrushev understands that it is necessary to act quickly. True, Kadyrov still remains, as a possible factor of instability, in the plans for the coming to power of the Patrushev clan, but there are both plan A and plan B on this score. We repeat, this is not the first time, few people want to hear right away, they will destroy ALL Wagner PMC commanders who took part in the rebellion. And for our opponents, who are so zealously striving for power in Russia, we inform you: PRIGOGINE IS EARLY TO DISCOUNT!