What is Kursk About?

Well, there is a plan behind this. More Ukraine doesn’t want to keep it. So, the easy answer is that this is a demonstration raid. We got that somewhat confirmed today.

This is the official declaration of the Ukrainian government. It could be no more transparent. I must say, this was in my what are they dough kind of an answer:

❗️”Ukraine is not interested in taking Kursk region. We don’t need someone else’s, unlike Russia,” — Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tikhyi

So what is this about? Apart from relieving the Russian Federation of at least 1000 troops, some rumors are double that. By the way, that’s an infantry regiment. I guessed some of this was about forcing hard choices on the Kremlin. Volymedia confirmed this today as well:

“Everything is going according to plan”

On August 12, the Russian president announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be driven out of the Kursk region, all available forces must be directed to this task and, in a short time, they must reach the state border line, after which it must be securely closed.

After this, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation assured that the offensive on Ukrainian territory not only continues everywhere, but its pace has increased by one and a half times.

Both presidential statements made the most reasonable officers of the Russian General Staff bleed from their ears. Because translated from propaganda into Russian military language, this means the following: immediately throw all forces into clearing the Kursk region at any cost; do not dare to curtail offensive actions where they are taking place, achieve the declared goals of the offensive at any cost.

The result is two mutually exclusive “at any cost” statements that cannot be argued with, but following the autocrat’s orders threatens the Russian army with enormous troubles.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed from 7 to 11 thousand people and up to 200 units of various armored vehicles in the Kursk operation, with no more than 5–6 thousand currently in the Kursk region. The conditional contact line there is 128 to 154 kilometers long and is increasing almost daily. In order to stop the expansion of the Ukrainian offensive of the Russian Armed Forces, according to Russian staff officers, it is necessary to gather a force of 55–65 thousand people in this direction and constantly feed them with reinforcements of 10–15 thousand people every two weeks. In addition, this group must be provided with tanks, aircraft, armored vehicles, and artillery. And even after this, there will be no talk of “quickly” and “immediately.” To do it “quickly,” it is necessary to concentrate at least 120 thousand people in the Kursk region. It is desirable that at least half of this crowd have combat experience. But where can we get so many soldiers? To understand, all Russian troops occupied today in the Pokrovsky and Toretsky directions, together with the rear, supply of troops in the Donetsk agglomeration, are exactly the sought-after 120 thousand, and all with combat experience.

There will be about the same number if all troops are withdrawn from the South of Ukraine from the Kherson region to Mariupol. Or all from Chasov Yar to the southern section of the Kupyansk direction. Or all from the Kupyansk and Vovchansk directions (this would amount to even 150 thousand).

It is clear that no one will withdraw all troops. It would be reasonable to withdraw people and equipment from those areas where the offensive is stalled or stopped (which is already being done) and, for example, retreat from the Kharkov region and leave Volchansk alone. Just stopping the offensive on Volchansk would give Gerasimov and Nikiforov (appointed to command the Kursk direction) about 32 thousand people. Together with those who have already been withdrawn from various sections of the front in different directions (from 11 to 14 thousand) and those who will be driven from the Russian Federation (another 14–17 thousand and up to 30 thousand August recruits) — this would be two-thirds of the required number. But here Putin’s second “at any cost” comes into play, according to which there can be no talk of stopping the operation in the Kharkov region, which is senseless for the Russian Federation.

Since the Russian Federation does not have the required number of trained free troops, they will remove those who are busy at the front and in the near rear. Little by little, it is necessary to maintain the pace of the offensive declared by the president. The gradual introduction of units into combat operations in the Kursk region will not bring the solution of the problem any closer, but will only lead to an increase in losses and the need to remove new units from the front. There is no talk of any mobilization yet, the Russian sovereign does not want it. What will the military do in this situation? The right thing to do is to quietly remove everyone they can from quiet areas (Kherson region, Zaporizhia region), from the rear and loudly lie in reports and reports to the Supreme Commander that everything is going according to plan.

And everything will go according to plan. Only Syrsky. To whom the brilliant Russian president helped to put a tick next to the next point with his decisions. We are sincerely glad for the wisdom of the Russian leader. We are impatiently waiting for the development of events in three or four weeks and not only in the Kursk region.
@Volyamedia

It’s the numbers. While Russia is moving troops to the new front, these numbers make a general draft more likely. For the moment, conscripts, who legally can’t be in the front line, never mind they have, and are, are getting forced to join the army as contract soldiers: